ASEAN and China in RCEP; A Force to be Reckoned With
It’s the year of 2025, you are playing a game on your phone while the TV in the background shows the afternoon news, “….the news coming from ASEAN, that currently holds the position as one of the leading regional economic communities since the success of the RCEP, along with China, they managed to build an economic force to be reckoned with…” The noise slowly gets smaller and smaller until it becomes muted in your head while you ponder back the memory of the year 2022, where the exact TV channel aired the ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that highlighted the partnership between 15 countries in which 10 of them are ASEAN member countries, and how the partnership would alter the course of economic power held by the US.
Since the beginning of the pitched design of the RCEP, it has been anticipated to be one of the biggest economic partnerships of the century, a new trade agreement that will shape the future of global economics and politics. ASEAN took a big part in RCEP, noting that 10 of ASEAN member countries joined hands in this economic partnership, joining hands with China as one of the partners, they were a force to be reckoned with since the beginning. With the current power struggle competition between the US and China, the RCEP became one of the make or break factors to the battle. As the US loses advantage after exiting the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement during the Trump administration, China continues to climb up the ladder to be the number one economic power in the world. As RCEP will connect about 30% of the world’s people and output and, in the right political context, will generate significant gains, it has been estimated that RCEP along with CPTPP will offset global losses from the U.S.-China trade war, although not for China, but surely for the U.S.
You might be wondering, where is the significance of ASEAN in this whole thing, aside from being a part of the RCEP? Well, to start off, the whole concept of RCEP was built around ASEAN. And it has been known that ASEAN-centered trade agreements tend to improve over time. It may not be as intense as the CPTPP agreement, but it certainly is impressive and more efficient in linking their strengths in technology, manufacturing, agriculture, and natural resources. Another point to note is that ASEAN was the broker of the deal in RCEP, without whom this deal might never be launched. Being the broker, ASEAN was able to take advantage of shaping the RCEP as they are in charge of negotiating the agreement.
How powerful does that make ASEAN as an economic community? ASEAN is currently the “leader” of one of the biggest economic cooperation on the planet, partnering with some of the biggest economic power in world politics, and they are maturing in their integration as a community. With an estimation that RCEP could add $209 billion annually to world incomes, and $500 billion to world trade by 2030, together with China who happens to be the world’s number two economic power, who can tell the power they will conquer together?
Knowing these prospects, the United States should not belittle the power that ASEAN and China have combined. With China thriving in their economy sector, almost overtaking the US position in the first spot, ASEAN growth as a rising economic power, and the irrelevance of the current America, the United States should be wiser than to treat ASEAN and China lightly.
Because they are truly a force to be reckoned with, and in a few years time, they might just take over the US title as the world’s greatest economic power.
Reference list
McDonald, T. (2020). What Is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)?
BBC News. [online] 16 Nov. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54899254.
Plummer, P.A.P. and M. (2020). RCEP: A new trade agreement that will shape global economics and politics. [online] Brookings. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that- will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/.
www.eria.org. (n.d.). Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Implications, Challenges and Future Growth of East Asia and ASEAN — Events : ERIA. [online] Available at: https://www.eria.org/events/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership-implications-challen ges-and-future-growth-of-east-asia-and-asean/ [Accessed 17 Jun. 2022].
*this amateur piece was done as an assignment for a class in my IR study. should there be any mistake, feel free to contact me through my social media. cheers!
